4 Uneasy Truths.
laying it all out on the table
You’ve probably heard a lot about how Iowa is becoming the center of the political universe this year; all the shocking polls, race ratings changes, and my impressive approval numbers.
That positive energy is palpable on the ground, too. Things do actually feel different this year here in Iowa.
But we can’t let all the good news make us complacent. This race is neck-and-neck and we will have to confront some difficult realities to win this race in November.
I owe you an honest assessment, which is why I want to discuss a few uneasy truths about this race.
Hard Truth: This race is rated Lean R.
On June 2nd, the day I won the Democratic primary, Cook Political Report changed their rating of Iowa’s Senate race from Likely R to Lean R — just one rating away from a pure Toss-Up.
That shift confirmed what we have felt on the ground for months: We have a real path to win this race. But it also means we still have our work cut out for us. It’ll require intense daily campaigning, voter registration efforts, and consistent grassroots fundraising.
My team and I are pushing ourselves to the limit this summer as we barnstorm Iowa and finish our 99 county tour. Whatever you can chip in will help fuel our work and force the experts to move the race rating one more slot in our direction once again.
Hard Truth: This race is a dead heat, no matter what the polls say.
The first independent polls of the general election found me tied, then leading by 2, and finally ahead by 4.
Then, the well-regarded New York Times/Siena College poll found me trailing Ashley Hinson by 2 points.
But the truth is that every single one of these polls is well within the margin of error.
The most accurate conclusion here is “It’s REALLY close.” That’s why I’m following the advice of my political hero, former U.S. Senator Tom Harkin: campaign like you’re behind until the last ballot is counted.
Hard Truth: MAGA is flooding Iowa with dark money to try and defeat me.
Axios reported recently that in an effort to keep Iowa’s Senate seat and the Senate majority in Republican hands, dark-money groups are adding $11 million to their planned spend in Iowa. That’s on top of the $40 million they’ve earmarked to defeat me.
We’re now preparing to take on at least $50 million from dark money groups alone. That doesn’t include my opponent’s campaign, corporate PACs, or national party spending. And we’ll face it all without a dime of corporate PAC money…which brings me to one last hard truth.
Hard Truth: This race will change American history, for better or for worse.
This is a once-in-a-generation election year. If we win Iowa’s open Senate seat, we flip the Senate majority.
The stakes are too high, the consequences too great, to sit on the sidelines.
Candidly,
Josh Turek